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The Rumsfeld Matrix as an effective tool in the decision-making process

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«There are known knowns. These are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don’t know we don’t know»

Donald Rumsfeld

Rumsfeld Matrix

During a briefing on the Iraq War, Donald Rumsfeld divided information into 4 categories:

These differences became the basis of the Rumsfeld matrix (a decision-making system that displays and evaluates different degrees of certainty and uncertainty).

4 quadrants of the Rumsfeld matrix

  1. Known knowns: These are facts that we know and understand. It is our knowledge base that provides a solid basis for decision making;
  2. Known unknowns: These are facts that we know about, but do not fully understand. These are gaps in our knowledge that we need to address through research, investigation or expert consultation;
  3. Unknown knowns: These are facts that we don’t realize we know. Such information is stored in our subconscious, ignored and considered unnecessary. Disclosure of such information can be beneficial and lead to certain breakthroughs in the decision-making process;
  4. Unknown unknowns: These are facts that we do not know and cannot predict. They are the most significant source of uncertainty and risk, as they can lead to surprise and disrupt plans.

Rumsfeld Matrix effectiveness

Rumsfeld Matrix using

  1. Quadrants definition:
  1. Actions:
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